If you’ve been wondering how many new gTLDs could be launching under the new streamlined ICANN approval process, ICANN has provided a partial answer.
According to a report into server load by the Root Server System Advisory Committee “demand in the initial round will be in the 400-500 range.”
This is based on an unpublished study from CRA International and a bit of guesswork. CRAI apparently asked around the ICANN community – those ‘in the know’ – to estimate that 300 to 400 gTLDs will come from that sector.
The RSSAC added an informed estimate of 100 to 200 applications from brand owners and plucked the number 100 out of mid air to account for IDNs.
This makes a range of 500 to 700, but the survey was a couple of years old and the estimate has been scaled down due to the economic downturn.
The report expects, with 400 applications per year, about 215 per year will make it into the root.
I found this bit interesting:
For each batch, 54% of the applications will be considered “clean” and not require Extended Evaluation. 46% of each batch will require the Extended Evaluation/Dispute Resolution/Community Priority process.
Of the “clean” applications only 77% will be successfully delegated.
But I’m not sure what assumptions the figures are based on. The paper concludes with this enigmatic statement.
The result is demonstrated (in font too small to see) in the chart below.
And then it just ends.