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Could the next new gTLD round last 25 years? Or 70 years?

Kevin Murphy, July 13, 2017, Domain Policy

Will the next new gTLD round see 25,000 applications? If so, how long will it take for them all to go live?

The 25,000 figure is one that I’ve heard touted a few times, most recently during public sessions at ICANN’s meeting in Johannesburg last month.

The problem is that, judging by ICANN’s previous performance, such a huge number of applications would take anywhere from 25 to 70 years to process.

It’s unclear to me where the 25,000 application estimate comes from originally, but it does not strike me as laughably implausible.

There were just shy of 1,930 applications for 1,408 unique strings in the most recent round.

There could have been so many more.

ICANN’s outreach campaign is generally considered to have been a bit lackluster, particularly in developing markets, so many potential applicants were not aware of the opportunity.

In addition, some major portfolio applicants chose to rein in their ambitions.

Larry Page, then-CEO of Google, is known to have wanted to apply for many, many more than the 101 Google wound up applying for, but was talked down by staff.

There’s talk of pent-up demand for dot-brands among those companies that missed the 2012 window, but it’s impossible to know the scale of that demand with any precision.

Despite the fact that a handful of dot-brands with ICANN registry agreements and delegations have since cancelled their contracts, there’s no reason they could not reapply for defensive purposes again in subsequent rounds.

There are also thousands of towns and cities with populations comparable to cities that applied in 2012 that could apply next time around.

And there’s a possibility that the cost of applying — set at $185,000 on a highly redundant “cost recovery” basis — may come down in the next round.

Lots of other factors will play a role in how many applications we see, but in general it doesn’t seem impossible that there could be as many as 25,000.

Assuming for a moment that there are 25,000, how long will that take to process?

In the 2012 round, ICANN said it would delegate TLDs at a rate of no more than 1,000 per year. So that’s at least 25 years for a 25,000-app round.

That rate was set somewhat arbitrarily during discussions about root zone scaling before anyone knew how many gTLDs would be applied for and estimates were around the 500 mark.

Essentially, the 1,000-per-year number was floated as a sort of straw man (or “straw person” as some ICANNers have it nowadays) so the technical folk had a basis to figure out whether the root system could withstand such an influx.

Of course, this limit will have to be revised significantly if ICANN has any hope of processing 25,000 applications in under a generation.

Discussions at the time indicated that the rate of change, not the size of the root zone, was what represented the stability threat.

In reality, the rate of delegation has been significantly slower than 1,000 per year.

It took until May 2016 for the 1,000th new gTLD to go live, 945 days after the first batch were delegated in late October 2013.

That means that during the relative “rush-hour” of new gTLD delegations, there was still only a little over one per day on average.

And that’s counting from the date of the first delegation, which was actually 18 months after the application window was closed.

If that pattern held in subsequent rounds, we would be looking at about 70 years for a batch of 25,000 to make their way through the system.

You could apply for a vanity gTLD matching your family name and leave the delegation as a gift to your great-grandchildren, long after your death.

Clearly, with 25,000 applications some significant process efficiencies — including, I fancy, much more automation — would be in order.

Currently, IANA’s process for making changes to root zone records (including delegations) is somewhat complex and has multiple manual steps. And that’s before Verisign makes the actual change to the master root zone file.

But the act of delegation is only the final stage of processing a gTLD application.

First, applications that typically run into tens of thousands of words have to undergo Initial Evaluation by several teams of knowledgeable consultants.

From Reveal Day in 2012 to the final IE being published in 2014 took a little over two years, or an average of 2.5 applications per day.

Again, we’re looking at over a quarter of a century just to conduct IE on 25,000 applications.

Then there’s contracting — ICANN’s lawyers would have to sign off on about a dozen Registry Agreements per day if it wanted to process 25,000 delegations in just five years.

Not to mention there’s also pre-delegation testing, contention resolution, auctions, change requests, objections…

There’s a limited window to file objections and there were many complaints, largely from governments, that this period was far too short to read through just 1,930 applications.

A 25,000-string round could take forever, and ICANN’s policies and processes would have to be significantly revised to handle them in a reasonable timeframe.

Then again, potential applicants might view the 2012 round as a bust and the next round could be hugely under-subscribed.

There’s no way of knowing for sure, unfortunately.

ICANN shuffles regional bosses, drops “hub” concept

Kevin Murphy, June 29, 2017, Domain Policy

ICANN has made a couple of changes to its senior management team and abandoned the Chehade-era concept of “hub” offices.

Rather than having three offices it calls “hubs” in different parts of the world — Los Angeles, Istanbul and Singapore — it will now have five of what it calls “regional offices”.

As well as the three former hubs, one will be in Brussels, Belgium and the other in Montevideo, Uruguay.

A few vice presidents are being shuffled around to head up each of these offices.

Senior policy VP David Olive is being replaced as managing director of the Istanbul office by Nick Tomasso, who’s also VP in charge of ICANN’s public meetings. Olive will carry on in his VP role, but back in Washington DC, from August.

Fellow policy VP and veteran GAC relations guy Olof Nordling is retiring from ICANN at the end of the July. His role as MD of the Brussels office will be filled by Jean-Jacques Sahel, VP of stakeholder engagement for Europe.

Rodrigo de la Parra, VP of stakeholder engagement for the Latin America region, will be MD of the Montevideo office. Jia-Rong Low runs the Singapore office. ICANN CEO Goran Marby of course is top dog in LA.

The difference in nomenclature — “hub” versus “regional office” — looks to me like it’s quite minor.

Former CEO Fadi Chehade had early on in his stint at ICANN professed a desire to pursue a strategy of aggressive internationalization, with hub offices having equal importance, but I don’t think the idea ever really took off to the extent he expected and he didn’t stick around long enough to see it through.

In addition, the IANA transition last year, which separated ICANN from its US government oversight, pretty much carved ICANN’s California roots into stone for the time being.

ICANN heading to Japan and Canada in 2019

Kevin Murphy, June 28, 2017, Domain Policy

ICANN has named two of the host cities for its 2019 public meetings.

The community will descend upon Kobe, Japan in March 2019 for the first meeting of the year and will head to Montreal, Canada, for the annual general meeting in November.

Both locations were approved by the ICANN board of directors at a meeting this weekend.

The location of the middle “policy forum” meeting for 2019 has not yet been identified.

ICANN is currently meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa. Later this year it will convene in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Spanish speakers can rejoice next year, when the locations, in order, are Barcelona, Panama City and San Juan (the Puerto Rican one).

Cybersquatting cases down in .uk

Kevin Murphy, June 23, 2017, Domain Policy

The number of cybersquatting complaints filed against .uk domains fell in 2016, according to data out this week from Nominet.

The .uk registry said that there were 703 complaints filed with its Dispute Resolution Service in the year, down from 728 in 2015.

However, the number of individual domains complained about appears to have increased, from 745 to 785. That’s partly due to registrants owning both .co.uk and .uk versions of the same name.

The number of cases that resulted in domains being transferred was 53%, the same as 2015, Nominet said.

The large majority of cases were filed by UK-based entities against UK-based registrants, the stats show.

Zone file access is crap, security panel confirms

Kevin Murphy, June 20, 2017, Domain Policy

ICANN’s Centralized Zone Data Service has some serious shortcomings and needs an overhaul, according to the Security and Stability Advisory Committee.

The panel of DNS security experts has confirmed what CZDS subscribers, including your humble correspondent, have known since 2014 — the system had a major design flaw baked in from day one for no readily apparent reason.

CZDS is the centralized repository of gTLD zone files. It’s hosted by ICANN and aggregates zones from all 2012-round, and some older, gTLDs on a daily basis.

Signing up for it is fairly simple. You simply fill out your contact information, agree to the terms of service, select which zones you want and hit “submit”.

The purpose of the service is to allow researchers to receive zone files without having to enter into separate agreements with each of the 1,200+ gTLDs currently online.

The major problem, as subscribers know and SSAC has confirmed, is that the default subscription period is 90 days.

Unless the gTLD registry extends the period at its end and in its own discretion, each subscription ends after three months — cutting off access — and the subscriber must reapply.

Many of the larger registries exercise this option, but many — particularly dot-brands — do not.

The constant need to reapply and re-approve creates a recurring arse-ache for subscribers and, registry staff have told me, the registries themselves.

The approval process itself is highly unpredictable. Some of the major registries process requests within 24 hours — I’ve found Afilias is the fastest — but I’ve been waiting for approval for Valuetainment’s .voting since September 2016.

Some dot-brands even attempt to insert extra terms of service into the deal before approving requests, which defeats the entire purpose of having a centralized service in the first place.

Usually, a polite email to the person handling the requests can produce results. Other times, it’s necessary to report them to ICANN Compliance.

The SSAC has evidently interviewed many people who share my concerns, as well as looking at data from Compliance (where CZDS reliably generates the most complaints, wasting the time of Compliance staff).

This situation makes zone file access unreliable and subject to unnecessary interruptions. The missing data introduces “blind spots” in security coverage and research projects, and the reliability of software – such as security and analytics applications – that relies upon zone files is reduced. Lastly, the introduced inefficiency creates additional work for both registry operators and subscribers.

The SSAC has no idea why the need to reapply every 90 days was introduced, figuring it must have happened during implementation.

But it recommends that access agreements should automatically renew once they expire, eliminating the busywork of reapplying and closing the holes in researchers’ data sets.

As I’m not objective on this issue, I agree with that recommendation wholeheartedly.

I’m less keen on the SSAC’s recommendation that registries should be able to opt out of the auto-renewals on a per-subscriber basis. This will certainly be abused by the precious snowflake dot-brands that have already shown their reluctance to abide by their contractual obligations.

The SSAC report can be read here (pdf).

Ombudsman steps in after harassment claims in Whois group

Kevin Murphy, June 16, 2017, Domain Policy

ICANN Ombudsman Herb Waye has started monitoring an ICANN mailing list after multiple complaints of disrespectful behavior.

Waye this week told participants in the Registration Data Services working group that he is to trawl through their list archives and proactively monitor the group following “multiple complaints regarding behavior that contravenes the ICANN Expected Standards of Behavior and possibly the Community Anti-Harassment Policy”.

The RDS working group is exploring the possibility of replacing the current Whois system, in which all data is completely open, with something “gated”, restricting access to authenticated individuals based on their role.

Law enforcement agencies, for example, may be able to get a greater level of access to personal contact information than schmucks like me and you.

Privacy advocates are in favor of giving registrants more control over their data, while anti-abuse researchers hate anything that will limit their ability to stop spam, phishing and the like.

It’s controversial stuff, and arguments on the RDS WG list have been been very heated recently, sometimes spilling over into ad hominem attacks.

The Expected Standards of Behavior requires all ICANN community members to treat each other with civility.

I haven’t seen anything especially egregious, but apparently the disrespect on display has been sufficiently upsetting that the Ombudsman has had to step in.

It’s the first time, that I’m aware of, that the ICANN Ombudsman has proactively monitored a list rather than simply responding to complaints.

Waye said that he plans to deliver his verdict before ICANN 59, which kicks off in a little over a week.

US “threatens” Costa Rica over Pirate Bay domains

Kevin Murphy, June 16, 2017, Domain Policy

The US government has been threatening to “close down” Costa Rica’s .cr registry over its refusal to take down a Pirate Bay domain name, according to the registry.

Representatives of the US embassy in Costa Rica have been badgering NIC.cr to take down thepiratebay.cr since 2015, according to a letter from Pedro León Azofeifa, president of Academia Nacional de Ciencias, which runs the registry.

The letter claims:

These interactions with the United States Embassy have escalated with time and include great pressure since 2016 that is exemplified by several phone calls, emails and meetings urging our ccTLD to take down the domain, even though this would go against our domain name policies

According to the letter, a US official “has mentioned threats to close our registry, with repeated harassment regarding our practices and operation policies and even personal negative comments directed to our Executive Director”.

The letter was sent to the chair of ICANN’s Governmental Advisory Committee 10 days ago, CC’d to senior ICANN, Costa Rican and US governmental figures, and has been circulated this week in the Latin American domain name community.

The form of the alleged threats to close the registry is not clear, but it should be noted that prior to October 1 last year the US Department of Commerce, via its now-relinquished oversight of ICANN, played a key role in the administration of the DNS root zone.

The Pirate Bay is of course a popular directory of BitTorrent links largely used to disseminate pirated copies of movies and music, much of it American-made.

The site has been TLD-hopping for years, as registries around the world shut down its domains for violations of their own local rules. It has been live on thepiratebay.cr since December 2014, when its Swedish operation was shut down by authorities.

The NIC.cr letter says that its own policies follow international “best practices” and allow it to take down domains when presented with a Costa Rican court order, but that “the pressure and harassment [from the US] to take down the domain name without its proper process and local court order persists”.

The US Department of Commerce even pressured its Costa Rican counterpart to investigate NIC.cr, but that probe concluded that the registry was acting within its procedures, according to the letter.

It’s not the first attempt to get rid of the Pirate Bay this year.

Public Interest Registry in February announced a “UDRP for copyright” proposal that would allow copyright holders to have piracy disputes heard by independent arbitrators. It looked like a way to get unloved thepiratebay.org domain taken down without PIR having to take unilateral action.

That proposal was shelved after an outcry from the industry and civil rights watchdogs.

In April, one of the Pirate Bay’s founders launched a piracy-friendly domain registration service.

Just this week, the European Court of Justice ruled, after seven years of legal fights, that the Pirate Bay infringes copyright, raising the possibility of the site being blocked in more European countries.

The NIC.cr letter is dated June 6. It has not yet been published by ICANN or the GAC.

Bladel quits as Council chair as GoDaddy ruled “ineligible” for election

Kevin Murphy, June 14, 2017, Domain Policy

GNSO Council Chair James Bladel has resigned, after it emerged that GoDaddy, his employer, is not eligible for office under registrar rules.

He will continue to occupy the post on an interim basis until a new election is held.

Bladel was elected to represent the Registrars Stakeholder Group on the Council back in 2013 and was elected by the Council as chair in late 2015.

However, the RrSG has just discovered that he’s actually ineligible for elected office under its charter because GoDaddy is also a dot-brand registry.

The RrSG charter states that in order to avoid conflicts of interest, a registrar that also has a Specification 9 exemption from the registry Code of Conduct in an ICANN registry conduct may not hold office.

GoDaddy signed its .godaddy registry agreement, which includes the Spec 9 exemption, in July 2015. The gTLD is not currently being used.

GoDaddy is of course the largest registrar in the industry, but it appears its ability to wield power in ICANN’s policy-making bodies now appears to be hamstrung by its foray into new gTLDs.

Bladel’s resignation is not expected to have any significant impact on GNSO Council work.

He’s been reappointed by the RrSG executive committee on an interim basis until elections can be held for a replacement. His term is due to expire in November anyway.

Should ICANN get breastfeeding areas? Have your say!

Kevin Murphy, June 12, 2017, Domain Policy

ICANN has launched a survey of community members’ views on gender, apparently trying to figure out whether it has a sexism problem.

The short, anonymous quiz, published today, asks a bunch of reasonable questions about gender diversity at ICANN’s physical meetings and online interactions.

The organization wants to know if you think your gender has had any influence on your participation at ICANN, and whether you think it could in your future in the community.

It wants to know if you think ICANN is too male-dominated, whether gender is a barrier to progression, and whether you feel represented by current leadership.

The survey also throws up a few questions I found a little surprising.

Should ICANN be holding “educational” sessions on gender diversity? Should it have “mandatory” diversity “quotas”? Should its meetings have breastfeeding areas? Would people who don’t identify as either gender have difficulty ascending to leadership positions?

Founded in 1998, ICANN is the organization tasked with coordinating certain of the internet’s unique technical identifiers.

ICANN scraps remote meeting hubs

Kevin Murphy, June 7, 2017, Domain Policy

ICANN is doing away with remote participation hubs for its thrice-yearly public meetings.

The organization said yesterday that the hubs were barely used and often hit technical barriers.

For avoidance of doubt, we’re not talking about remote participation here, we’re just talking about the “hubs” that various community members would set up in their home nations for locals who for whatever reason could not attend meetings in person.

Basically, they were a bunch of guys in a room somewhere in the southern hemisphere, watching the live meeting video stream and occasionally streaming their own wonky video and crackly audio into the primary meeting location in order to say, ask a question.

The first ones I’m aware of were in 2010 for the Nairobi meeting, when some Europeans and North Americans didn’t want to travel due to terrorism concerns, but ICANN formally started financially supporting them a couple years ago.

Two of the meetings since then did not have hubs. The mid-year Policy Forum in Helsinki didn’t have one last year, and the Hyderabad meeting couldn’t have them due to the ship fire that destroyed ICANN kit.

In January this year, ICANN said it would only pay for remote participation if the remote hubs could rustle up more than 25 participants each. There were also technical requirements that had to be met.

That seems to have been a tall order, so it looks like Copenhagen will be the last meeting ICANN will pay for these hubs.

There’s nothing stopping bunches of guys gathering together around Adobe Connect screens and participating that way, of course.