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ICANN security advisor predicts “hundreds” of new gTLDs will “go dark”

Kevin Murphy, December 4, 2015, Domain Registries

A security company led by a member of ICANN’s top security committee reckons that “hundreds” of new gTLDs are set to fail, leading to web sites “going dark”.

Internet Identity, which provides threat data services, made the prediction in a press release this week.

IID’s CTO, quoted in the release, is Rod Rasmussen. He’s a leading member of the Anti-Phishing Working Group, as well as a member of ICANN’s influential Security and Stability Advisory Committee.

He has a dim view of new gTLDs:

Most new gTLDs have failed to take off and many have already been riddled with so many fraudulent and junk registrations that they are being blocked wholesale. This will eventually cause ripple effects on the entire domain registration ecosystem, including consolidation and mass consumer confusion as unprofitable TLDs are dropped by their sponsoring registries.

The press release acknowledges that ICANN has an Emergency Back-End Registry Operator (EBERO) program, which will keep failing gTLDs alive for up to three years after the original registry operator goes out of business.

But it continues:

questions abound as to who would risk an investment in poorly performing TLDs, especially as they start to number in the hundreds. “That’s why eventually some are going to just plain go dark,” added Rasmussen.

The prediction is for “2017 and beyond”. Given the existence of the EBERO, we’re probably looking at 2020 before IID’s claim can be tested.

It’s a bit of a strange prediction to come out of a security company.

The whole point of EBERO is to make sure domain names do not go dark, giving either the registry the chance to sell on the gTLD or the registrants a three-year heads-up that they need to migrate to a different TLD.

It would be a bit like being told that there’s a horrible bit of malware that is set to brick your computer, but that you’ll be fine if you change your anti-virus provider in the next three years.

I could live with that kind of security threat, personally.

But what are the chances of hundreds of live, non-dot-brand going fully post-EBERO dead in the next few years?

I’d say evidence to date shows the risk may be over-stated. It may happen to a small number of TLDs, but to “hundreds”?

We’ve already seen new gTLD registries essentially fail, and they’ve been taken over by others even when they’re by definition not profitable.

Notably, .hiv — which has a contractual agreement with ICANN to not turn a profit — failed and was nevertheless acquired by Uniregistry.

We also see registries including Afilias and Donuts actively searching for failing gTLDs to acquire.