Super Bowl a bit of a dud for .com?

Having two of its largest registrars advertising during Sunday’s Super Bowl broadcast doesn’t seem to have given Verisign’s declining .com flagship much of a boost.

According to numbers published on the company’s web site, .com has grown by about 30,000 domains in the last two days.

While that’s certainly not to be sniffed it, it’s well within the parameters of a normal day’s operation for .com. The TLD’s zone file shrinks more days than it grows nowadays, but five-figure daily upticks are not uncommon.

GoDaddy and Squarespace both took out 30-second spots during the Super Bowl. Both featured high-profile actors and had high production values, but neither mentioned domain names once.

GoDaddy’s focused on its Airo tool and Squarespace’s… goodness knows what that was all about.

Verisign CEO Jim Bidzos last week told analysts that the two commercials were a sign that its registrar partners are starting to focus more on customer acquisition, which should help .com return to growth.

More gloom predicted for .com

Verisign is predicting more shrinkage at .com and .net in 2025, despite a few notes of optimism from its CEO.

The company said last night that its two flagship gTLDs shrunk by a combined 3.7 million domains in 2024, a 2.1% decrease, as I flagged up a couple weeks ago, and that its growth this year will be between negative 2.3% and negative 0.3%.

The quarterly loss was around 500,000 domains. Verisign ended the quarter with 169 million domains under management.

CEO Jim Bidzos again told analysts that the shrinkage was partly due to weakness in China and partly due to American registrars concentrating on profit margins over customer acquisition.

Growth was positive in the EMEA region, he said, without quantifying it.

Bidzos said that marketing programs the company recently launched show early signs of adoption by registrars, and that he expects registrars to refocus on customer acquisition as part of a cyclical trend.

He pointed to the fact that two registrars — presumably GoDaddy and Squarespace — have taken out pricey Super Bowl TV ads this weekend as an encouraging sign.

He said that Verisign is “considering looking at” applying for new gTLDs next year and is “looking at the potential for applications”.

The company reported Q4 net income of $191 million, down from $265 million a year earlier, on revenue that was up 3.9% at $395 million.

For the full year, Verisign had net income of $786 million versus $818 million in 2023, on revenue that was up 4.3% at $1.56 billion.

Verisign has much to be thankful for as .com contract renewed

Verisign went into the US Thanksgiving weekend with a freshly renewed .com Registry Agreement that allows it to keep control of its cash cow for another six years with price-raising powers the US government admitted it is powerless to rescind.

The deal with ICANN does not change Verisign’s price caps — it will still be allowed to raise prices by 7% in four of the six-year term — but it does allow ICANN to raise the fees it charges by an amount linked to US inflation.

ICANN has already said it plans to increase its fees on all other gTLD registries, so it seems certain .com, which raises more transaction revenue than any other TLD, will get the same notice before long.

The deal means cost-conscious registrants have a bit of breathing space; Verisign is only allowed to raises prices in the final four years of its term, which runs from yesterday until November 30, 2030.

So, no more price hikes until September 2026. Due to the required notice period, designed to allow registrants to lock in renewal pricing, we’ll almost certainly hear Verisign talk about a fee increase in early 2026.

The US government, via the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, also confirmed that it has renewed its Cooperative Agreement, which is where the price caps come from, with the company:

NTIA recognizes concerns about current pricing and believes a reduction in .com prices would be in the best interest of the public. We also recognize that prices at both the wholesale level and downstream, including prices charged by resellers and substantial markups by warehousers, need to be addressed. That said, both parties must agree to any changes in order for the Cooperative Agreement to be amended. Over the past several months, NTIA and Verisign have engaged in serious conversations, but, despite our best efforts, we have been unable to agree how wholesale .com pricing should change.

So the status quo remains, at least regards pricing.

The ICANN contract also requires Verisign to act on reports of DNS abuse — malware, botnets, phishing, pharming, and some spam — for the first time, in line with the standard RA signed by all other gTLDs.

A side deal that sees Verisign pay ICANN a few extra million bucks a year and commit to cooperate on DNS security has also been renewed, with a strong implication that it will too become part of the contractual status quo over the coming year.

Americans are deserting .com

Forget China, Verisign is now seeing most of its domain sales weakness coming from the US.

The company revealed in its quarterly earnings call last week that .com and .net were down by a combined 1.1 million names in the third quarter, and 850,000 of those losses were from American registrars.

CEO Jim Bidzos told analysts that the weakness was a result of US registrars concentrating more on making existing customers more profitable and less on acquiring new customers.

Registrars are raising prices and pushing more secondary market sales, he said. That’s great for the registrars’ bottom lines, but it doesn’t help Verisign shift product.

There were 169.6 million .com and .net domains at the end of Q3, Bidzos said. The Q3 renewal rate is expected to be about 72.3%, compared to 73.5% a year ago.

There was also weakness in China, he said, due to economic factors and regulation. China has frequently been blamed for sales fluctuations in previous weak quarters. Europe was actually up by 200,000 names, Bidzos said.

Verisign now expects domain growth of between -2.9% and -2.3% for the full year, narrowing its forecast from the -3% to -2% it predicted in July and the +1% to -1% predicted at the start of the year.

Higher wholesale prices means the company is still growing, however. Revenue was up 3.8% to $391 million and net income was up from $188 million to $201 million compared to year-ago numbers.

Some Guy wants to take over .com and .net

Some Guy has noticed that domain name prices keep going up and has offered to take over the .com and .net registries from Verisign.

The Some Guy recently filed a formal Request for Reconsideration with ICANN, asking it to overturn its recent decision to renew Verisign’s .com contract and award it to him instead. The RfR reads:

I seek to become a registry operator committed to making .COM domains more affordable and accessible to students, startups, and developers. The decision to renew Verisign’s contract hinders competition, limiting opportunities for more innovative registry operators like Asxit LLC to contribute to the digital ecosystem.

The request is accompanied by a 25-page, ChatGPT-odored analysis of why Asxit LLC would be a better .com registry than Verisign, which concludes:

The introduction of Asxit LLC as a .COM registry operator would bring significant improvements in pricing, innovation, support, and accessibility compared to Verisign’s current management. By focusing on affordable and flexible solutions, Asxit LLC aims to create a more inclusive and competitive environment for all users. This change would enhance the value of the .COM domain and support the growth of a diverse and innovative digital community.

In August, Some Guy with the same last name, who said he is a student at Liberty University in Virginia, said Asxit LLC should take over .net as well.

They’re not the funniest or craziest submissions ICANN has received over the years, but they might be worth a chuckle if you’re clock-watching on a Friday afternoon.

The sad part is of course that ICANN is now duty-bound to commit legal and board resources preparing a response to this request before throwing it out entirely.

Verisign agrees to .com takedown rules

Verisign has agreed to take down abusive .com domains under the next version of its registry contract with ICANN.

The proposed deal, published for public comment yesterday, could have financial implications for the entire domain industry, but it also contains a range of changes covering the technical management of .com.

Key among them is the addition of new rules on “DNS Abuse” that require Verisign to respond to abuse reports, either by referring the domain to its registrar or by taking direct action

Abuse is defined with the now industry-standard “malware, botnets, phishing, pharming, and spam (when spam serves as a delivery mechanism for the other forms of DNS Abuse listed in this definition)”.

The language is virtually identical to the strengthened DNS abuse language in the base Registry Agreement that almost all other gTLD registries have been committed to since their contracts were updated this April. It reads:

Where Registry Operator reasonably determines, based on actionable evidence, that a registered domain name in the TLD is being used for DNS Abuse, Registry Operator must promptly take the appropriate mitigation action(s) that are reasonably necessary to contribute to stopping, or otherwise disrupting, the domain name from being used for DNS Abuse. Such action(s) shall, at a minimum, include: (i) the referral of the domains being used for the DNS Abuse, along with relevant evidence, to the sponsoring registrar; or (ii) the taking of direct action, by Registry Operator, where Registry Operator deems appropriate.

The current version of the .com contract only requires Verisign to publish an abuse contact on its web site. It doesn’t even oblige the company to respond to abuse reports.

In domain volume terms, .com is regularly judged one of the most-abused TLDs on the internet, though newer, cheaper gTLDs usually have worse numbers in terms of the percentage of registrations that are abusive.

Verisign will also get an obligation that other registries don’t have — to report to ICANN “any cyber incident, physical intrusion or infrastructure damages” that affects the .com registry.

ICANN won’t be able to reveal the details of such incidents publicly unless Verisign gives its permission, but in a side deal (pdf) the two parties promise to work together on a process for public disclosure.

Verisign will also have to implement two 20-year-old IETF standards on “Network Ingress Filtering” that describe methods of mitigating denial-of-service attacks by blocking traffic from forged IP addresses.

The contract is open for public comment.

New .com contract could see ALL domain prices go up

Verisign will retain its power to increase .com prices by 7% a year, and prices in other gTLDs could well go up too, under a new proposed registry contract designed to help patch up ICANN’s budget.

The proposed .com Registry Agreement was posted for public comment this evening, and the pricing terms within could have broad implications for all registrants of gTLD domains.

For starters, as usual the deal lets Verisign raise .com prices, currently $10.26 a year, by 7% in the final four years of the six years of its term. This is an option Verisign has never failed to exercise in the past.

But the deal would also give ICANN the power, in its sole discretion, to raise the per-transaction fees Verisign pays it for each added, renewed, or transferred .com domain, in line with the latest US inflation numbers.

The fee is currently $0.25 per transaction, and it hasn’t gone up ever, as far as I recall.

The proposed text on inflation is pretty much the same as found in all post-2012 gTLD Registry Agreements, but adds a clause saying that ICANN cannot raise the .com fees unless it also raises fees in “multiple other registry agreements”.

Yet another clause strongly suggests that ICANN intends to exercise its existing right to increase its fees, again according to the US Consumer Price Index, across other gTLDs — presumably all of them — rather soon:

ICANN and Registry Operator hereby agree that if ICANN delivers notice of a fee adjustment to other registry operators after November 1, 2024 and prior to the Effective Date, ICANN may concurrently deliver such fee adjustment notice to Registry Operator, in which case the provisions of Section 7.2(d) shall be deemed to have applied at the time such notice was sent.

Translated, this means that ICANN can put Verisign on notice that its fees are going up even before the contract is signed, but only if it also raises the fees on other registries at the same time.

It’s difficult to imagine why this language is there unless it’s describing something ICANN is actually planning to do.

Unlike Verisign, other gTLD operators do not have regulated pricing, so any ICANN fee increase on them could very well be passed on to registrars and ultimately registrants with increased wholesale prices.

The new contract is being proposed a few months after ICANN laid off staff because its budget was $10 million light, and CEO Sally Costerton said the Org was “evaluating ICANN’s fee structure to ensure it scales realistically with inflation”.

Verisign, and .com in particular, is ICANN’s biggest single source of funding, contributing $47.3 million of its $145.5 million in revenue in its last fiscal year.

The proposed new .com contract and public comment opportunity can be found here.

ICA finally comments on .com pricing talks

With the latest public debate about whether Verisign is ripping off registrants with its .com pricing now into its third month, one voice has been conspicuously absent.

But the Internet Commerce Association, which represents domain investors and domaining registrars, has now publicly called for .com wholesale fees to continue to be capped and Verisign’s profit margins to be tempered.

Issuing a statement late last week, the ICA revealed that it has participated in talks with the US National Telecommunications and Information Administration regarding its upcoming renewal of the .com Cooperative Agreement.

ICA said it is “encouraging NTIA to focus on ensuring that price caps have some relation to both the cost of operating the .com registry and a reasonable, if not healthy operating margin”, adding:

We believe that it in the absence of actual competitive market forces determining price, it is crucial that an economic study be conducted to determine what a reasonable price would be for .com registrations, having regard to the costs of operating the .com registry on behalf of ICANN while also taking into consideration the need to make a reasonable profit from the exclusive license. As a trade association focused on Internet commerce, although we are generally uncomfortable with determining prices by any method other than via a competitive marketplace, this method is the next best thing in the circumstances.

The statement completely ignores Verisign’s attempt to preemptively flip the debate on its opponents when it recently claimed that the true price gouging occurs in the “unregulated” retail and secondary markets.

The .com pricing debate first came back into the public sphere in July, when three campaign groups called on NTIA to cancel the Cooperative Agreement and allow the .com registry contract to be open for competitive bidding.

The agreement, terms of which routinely make their way into ICANN’s Registry Agreement with Verisign, allow the company to raise prices 7% in four of each six-year term, options Verisign habitually exercises.

The result is a .com registry that generates the company operating margins in excess of 60%, returning mountains of cash to investors.

Three Republican lawmakers then raised the issue with NTIA and NTIA later said that it intended to renew the Cooperative Agreement, but that it had invited Verisign to talks focused on pricing.

In apparently coordinated statements, both parties said the talks would also extend to pricing in the retail channel and secondary market, which should have made ICA members nervous.

Verisign even put out a lengthy statement calling out registrars and domain investors for selling .com domains at hugely inflated prices, conveniently ignoring the facts that the registrar market is genuinely competitive and that domainers shoulder the risk that the domains they pay annual rent to Verisign for very probably will not ever sell.

Verisign’s arguments are sufficiently flawed that it’s perhaps surprising on the face of it that ICA’s new statement completely fails to address or challenge them.

The fact that Verisign is prepared to throw its most dedicated customers under the bus without too much fear of retaliation — something it does every time .com pricing comes up for debate — is perhaps indicative of its market power.

It’s the only dealer in town, and it knows it can say whatever it wants about the crackheads who frequent its corner.

US could change .com pricing terms

The US government and Verisign are to enter talks about possible changes to .com pricing.

The National Telecommunications and Information Administration has told the company that it “intends to renew its Agreement with Verisign” but said it welcomed Verisign agreeing to talks that “may include an amendment to the pricing terms”.

The news came in an exchange of letters between NTIA assistant secretary Alan Davidson and Verisign chief Jim Bidzos over the weekend, published last night. Davidson wrote:

NTIA has questions related to pricing in the .com market. We are therefore pleased that Verisign has agreed to discussions regarding .com pricing and the health of the .com ecosystem, including retail and secondary markets. The parties will discuss possible solutions that benefit end-users, both businesses and consumers, and serve the public interest

The Cooperative Agreement between NTIA and Verisign gives the company the right to raise prices by 7% in four of the six years of its term, all of which Verisign exercised in the current run, which ends in a couple months.

The price-rising powers were frozen under Obama administration but reinstated under Trump, giving Verisign masses of extra revenue and huge profit margins, even as .com volume numbers took a prolonged dive.

NTIA’s intervention follows letters from three campaign groups calling .com a “cartel” and inquiries from three Congresspeople.

In response to NTIA’s letter, Bidzos wrote:

We have observed that our capped .com price increases have not always been passed through to benefit end-users and therefore we welcome an opportunity to have this important discussion. We are prepared to consider structures to address this and other issues, including ways to make .com pricing more predictable for the channel as part of it.

It’s clear from this rather tense exchange that the two parties might not exactly see eye-to-eye on their desired outcomes.

Verisign’s position recently has been that .com volumes have been falling in large part because of what Bidzos called the “unregulated retail channel” pumping up prices to increase profit-per-domain over domains under management.

He also pointed out in the company’s most-recent quarterly earnings call that the average price of .coms on the secondary market is $1,600, or 166x the wholesale price.

As some have pointed out, Verisign complaining about profiteering in the channel is the height of chutzpah, given its own mouth-watering margins, which appear to be what it seeks to protect more than anything else.

If Verisign reckons the registrar business is so great, why hasn’t it launched a registrar of its own yet? The company has been legally permitted by the Cooperative Agreement and its ICANN contract to do so for years.

Verisign predicts more gloom as registrars shun .com growth

Verisign has yet again massively downgraded its expectations for .com growth, after it lost almost two million domains in the second quarter.

The company said it had 170.6 million .com and .net domains at the end of June, down 1.8 million compared to Q1 and a 2.2% decrease compared to a year earlier.

CEO Jim Bidzos said Verisign now expects the domain name base for the full year to be between -2% and -3%. That compares to a range of between +0.25% and -1.75% predicted in April and +1% to -1% predicted in February.

The Q2 renewal rate is expected to be 72.6% compared to 73.4% a year ago and 74.1% in Q1.

Bidzos said he does not expect the base to return to positive growth until the second half of 2025.

Bidzos, talking to analysts, acknowledged that Verisign’s wholesale .com price increases “may have had an impact” but put the blame for the growth shortfall squarely on what he called the “unregulated retail channel” in the US.

American registrars have been cranking up their prices in order to prioritize average revenue per user over volume, he said, meaning retail prices for .com have gone up “more than twice” Verisign’s own price hikes, leading to fewer sales as a result.

“Our research shows that the benefit from our capped wholesale prices is not always passed on to consumers,” he said.

He faced a barrage of questions from analysts about recent calls for the US government to sever its ties with Verisign over .com and put the TLD out for competitive rebidding, but reiterated the company’s position that if the government cuts it off, it still gets to run .com under its contract with ICANN.

Despite the volume woes, Verisign continues to be a high-margin cash-generating machine.

The company reported Q2 net income of $199 million, up from $186 million a year ago, on revenue up 4.1% at $387 million. Operating income was up to $266 million from $249 million and operating cash flow up to $160 million from $145 million.